000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO E HAS FORMED NEAR 16.0N 102.8W OR ABOUT 
140 MILES...230 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AT 1500 
UTC. ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...AND MOTION IS NNE 
OR 020 DEG AT 6 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 35 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N101W 13N104W. UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT 
AND THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO LAND...BUT ONLY 
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO 
TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90.5W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 12 KT. UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W S OF 15N IS MOVING W 12 KT. A LOW LEVEL 
SWIRL NEAR 9N117W APPEARS TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE THE ITCZ 
BUT LACKS CONVECTION.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 8N90W 13N99W 16N102W 9N116W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 5N77W 5N88W 9N100W 9N110W 6N118W 9N127W.

...DISCUSSION
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N143W AND EXTENDS SW 
THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A CUT OFF CYCLONE IS NEAR 
26.5N115.5W AND IS SHIFTING SSW WITH TIME...WITH A TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 13N122W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
NEAR 14N140W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N AND CRESTING ALONG POINTS 
27N143W 31N130W 24N120W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E TO A SHARP CREST 
NEAR 11N125W...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION 
IS NOTED UNDER THIS RIDGE. RESULTANT DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED 
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 25N140W 21N126W 25N108W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N97W WITH ITS ENVELOPE 
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 23N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 90W...AND ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE 
DEPRESSION. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 8N67W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW OVER PANAMA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 16N86W. DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS SPREADING N 
ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO ALONG 26N AT 100W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION ELSEWHERE E OF 110W IS SPREADING S BUT 
EVAPORATES ALONG 2N. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS AT 29N135W 1024 MB. SCATTERED 
TO LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED N OF 16N W OF 120W. 

$$
NELSON