000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO 
NEAR 13N105W MOVING SLOWLY NW. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION 
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 1 AND 3 DEGREES E OF THE APPARENT CENTER. 
A WEAK UPPER JET LIES NW OF THE CENTER AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE 
AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS BECOME MORE 
ACTIVE.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. CONVECTION HAS 
WEAKENED IN PAST 24 HR. HIGH LEVEL WINDS FROM THE N AND NE ARE 
BLOWING OVER THE WAVE AND PRODUCING A LOT OF SHEAR OVER 
SCATTERED CONVECTION BASICALLY ALONG THE ITCZ.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LITTLE 
EVIDENCE OF A WAVE AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY 
ALONG ITCZ.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N79W 7N87W 13N103W 12N107W 8N116W 
7N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 6N76W TO 6N89W TO 9N93W TO 8N98W TO 12N100W TO 9N110W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 6N118W AND 9N127W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH 
ONE CENTER NEAR 26N133W AND THE OTHER OVER THE SW U.S. A WEAK 
UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SRN BAJA EXTENDING W TO 120W. THE 
WESTERLIES ARE BEING HELD TO JUST NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER 
DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE WEAK TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN SOME WITH A CENTER 
DEVELOPING NEAR 24N114W. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND 
IT'S TWO CENTERS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPEARS IN THE WESTERLIES 
ALONG 137W N OF 30N. 

FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO DRIFT NW TO NEAR 
25N116W WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON TO IT'S TWO CENTERS NEAR 
25N135W AND OVER THE SW U.S. THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
HELD N OF 30N IN A GENERAL SWLY FLOW PATTERN. 

SURFACE FEATURES...

THE PACIFIC RIDGE WAS ANCHORED NEAR 30N133W AT 1023 MB TONIGHT 
WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N110W. THE RIDGE WAS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 125W 
ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IMAGERY AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THE 06Z GFS MODEL. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE NWLY 10 
TO 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE N OF 5N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W TO 20 
KT AND QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 
12N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W ON THE S SIDE OF THE WEAK LOW PRES 
CENTER.

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE PACIFIC HIGH TO DRIFT SE TO NEAR 
29N132W AT 1024 MB WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRADES. WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL 
FLOW WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

FOR DAY 2 THE PACIFIC HIGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 1022 MB AND 
DRIFT W TO NEAR 29N137W. NE TRADES WILL RELAX A BIT TO 20 KT 
FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 130W. SOME INCREASE IN NLY WINDS N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 127W TO 20 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL 
REMAIN NWLY 10 TO 15 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW WILL REMAIN ABOUT 
THE SAME BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. S OF 6N E OF 90W SW WINDS TO 20 
KT WILL PREVAIL.

$$
RRG