000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030323 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUN 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO NEAR 14N103W MOVING SLOWLY TO THE N AND NW. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING LESS DISTINCT. IN ADDITION CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL. THE LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NE TOWARDS ACAPULCO. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA NEAR 15N101W AND THE LOW IS MOVING UNDER AN AREA OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY UPSTREAM OF THE LOW ALONG 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...AND ALSO FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. DESPITE THE RECENT WEAKENING TRENDS...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 KT. THE ITCZ IS LIFTING NWD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE TOWARDS THE PANAMANIAN COAST. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE OR THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRES TO ITS EAST AND WAS MARKED SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N80W 13N102W 10N111W 9N127W 6N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 10.5N111W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 14N W OF 120W AS THE POLAR JET STREAM RIDES ABOVE MEAN RIDGE AXIS ALONG 130W TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON COAST. RIDGE AXIS IS SEPARATED FROM ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS IN THE DEEP TROPICS BY A NARROW SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM 27N115W TO 18N130W. MOST OF THIS AREA IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N COINCIDENT WITH A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N132W. FARTHER S...THE TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N130W EWD TO 12N115W. DIFFLUENT NELY FLOW TO ITS SE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. E OF 110W... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N101W... TO THE NE OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SEVERAL AREAS OF DIFFLUENCE AROUND THIS HIGH ARE ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SW. DESPITE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW...AMPLE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ COBB