000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO 
NEAR 13N103W WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NW DRIFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
ELONGATED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NE TOWARDS ACAPULCO. AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THIS AREA NEAR 15N103W AND 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS INITIATING A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION W OF THE 
SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS ALONG THE TROUGH. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 
60-75 NM OF 12.5N105.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WAS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W.
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL TOO 
ELONGATED...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE ITCZ IS 
LIFTING NWD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE TOWARDS THE PANAMA/ 
COSTA RICA BORDER. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING 
THE DAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W/114W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE 
WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO THE AREA OF LOW PRES TO ITS E 
AND THUS ITS SIGNATURE IS MASKED BY THE BROADER ENVIRONMENTAL 
CIRCULATION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS INDICATED 
MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THERE WAS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING 
NOTED WITHIN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. 

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N87W 12N100W 10N114W 8N130W 
7N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W...AND BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 14N W OF 120W AS 
THE POLAR JET STREAM RIDES ABOVE MEAN RIDGE AXIS ALONG 130W 
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON COAST. RIDGE AXIS IS SEPARATED FROM 
ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS IN THE DEEP TROPICS BY A NARROW SHEAR AXIS 
EXTENDING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST FROM 27N115W TO 18N130W. MOST OF THIS AREA IS VOID OF ANY 
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES 
THE AREA N OF 15N COINCIDENT WITH A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 
27N134W. FARTHER S...THE TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 12N131W EWD TO 12N115W. DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW TO 
ITS S IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W-135W.

E OF 110W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N103W...IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH SW OF ACAPULCO 
MEXICO. SEVERAL AREAS OF DIFFLUENCE AROUND THIS HIGH ARE 
ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO ITS E AND SW. 
VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE REGION FROM 10N 
TO 18N AND DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS RUNNING HIGH...MAKING 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 
UPPER FLOW E OF THIS REGION IS PRIMARILY N/NE AND SHEAR VALUES 
ARE HIGHER. THIS HAS LED TO MORE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR 
THE ITCZ AND NEAR THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

$$
COBB