000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO 
NEAR 10N104W WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NW DRIFT. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY 
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS NE TOWARDS ACAPULCO...AND THIS IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY 
A 1300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
OVER THIS AREA NEAR 15N102W AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS INITIATING A 
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION W OF THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS E OF THE 
TROUGH. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM 
11N-13N BETWEEN 103W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-16N 
BETWEEN 95W-101W. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL 
TOO ELONGATED...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE ITCZ IS 
SPIKING NWD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE TOWARDS THE PANAMA/ 
COSTA RICA BORDER. TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N-10N 
BETWEEN 84W-89W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
STILL SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO THE AREA OF LOW PRES TO ITS E AND 
THUS ITS SIGNATURE IS MASKED BY THE BROADER ENVIRONMENTAL 
CIRCULATION. A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 106W-114W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 10N88W 14N100W 7N118W 9N130W. 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 
114W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W 
AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 14N W OF 125W AS 
THE POLAR JET STREAM SKIRTS THE NRN BORDER EXTENDING TOWARDS THE 
CALIFORNIA/OREGON COAST. THE FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A SHARP 
MID/UPPER TROUGH LYING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FROM 
30N117W TO 22N118W. MOST OF THIS AREA IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT 
MOISTURE...AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE AREA N 
OF 15N COINCIDENT WITH A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N135W. 
FARTHER S...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO 13N140W 
AND DIFFLUENT ELY FLOW TO ITS S IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 130W-135W.

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 14N102W...IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SEVERAL AREAS OF 
DIFFLUENCE AROUND THIS HIGH ARE ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION 
PRIMARILY TO ITS E AND SW. VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE RELATIVELY 
LOW IN THE REGION FROM 10N TO 18N AND DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS 
RUNNING HIGH...MAKING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER FLOW E OF THIS REGION IS PRIMARILY 
N/NE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. THIS HAS LED TO MORE 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AND NEAR THE COASTS OF 
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

$$
BERG