000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES NEAR 11N103W 1007 MB WAS MOVING NW 10 KT. INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION TO THE AREA 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WHICH IS WITHIN 240 NM 
OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...GENERALLY FROM 9N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. THIS CONVECTION HAS ACQUIRED SOME 
BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS MAY BE 
STARTED WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS ON THIS SYSTEM. AT THE UPPER 
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEM IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W/84W MOVING W 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE 
WAVE AXIS N OF 6N TO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 
81W AND 86W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W/110W FROM 3N TO 15N MOVING W 15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS INDICATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE 
ITSELF...BUT RATHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRES 
NOTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.  

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...8N83W 12N101W 10N114W 8N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 6N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W INCLUDING 
THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N119W SWD THROUGH 20N125W 
TO 19N135W AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 60-90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 120W. WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE 
NEAR 23N140W DOMINATED THE AREA N AND W OF THE SHEAR AXIS. BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 19N WITH A LARGE 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N104W WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CENTER 
NEAR 12N133W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECAME DIFFLUENT TIN 
NATURE AND WAS AIDING IN MAINTAINING STRONG CONVECTION N OF 6N 
TO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COAST RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 29N131W 1021 MB 
WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF ITCZ W OF 110W. THIS FEATURE 
IS PRODUCING TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 8N TO 14N AND W OF 125W. 

$$
COBB