000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011619
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W MOVE W 10 KT. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR WAVE AXIS IN GULF OF PANAMA BUT SHOWS NO 
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVE W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE AXIS FROM 7N TO 10N 
SHOW NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG....8.5N84W 13N99W THEN 10N110W 8.5N125W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG OVER GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR WITHIN 
50 NM S OF AXIS FROM 83W-88W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS 
85W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 50-70 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 110W.

CONVECTION OUTSIDE ITCZ AREA...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 97W-103W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N120W SW TO 20N140W. DRY 
AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE AXIS.  BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALONG 110W DOMINATES NW MEXICO WEST OF 105W. ANOTHER UPPER 
TROUGH LIES ALONG 98W N OF 23N. ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
NEAR 14N104W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING E OF 112W. ANOTHER RIDGE 
EXTENDS W OF 116W ALONG 13N-14N.  NE WINDS ALOFT S OF 10N ACROSS 
ENTIRE BASIN. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 28N130W 1020 MB 
WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF ITCZ W OF 110W.  THIS 
FEATURE IS PRODUCING TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT BETWEEN FROM 9N-16N W 
OF 124W. LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10N102W 1007 MB PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 97W-103W. 
THIS LOW IS GENERATING 20-25 N WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT AND 
LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS S OF 13N. GFS MODEL 06Z RUN HAS 
SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT WHICH SEEN LIKELY AND BUILDING TO 15 FT IN 
48 HOURS.  

$$
BARNES/RUBIO