000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W N OF 2N IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY BUT 
APPEARS TO BE STRETCHING THE ITCZ N ALONG 105W WITH CONVECTION 
DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ PARAGRAPH BELOW.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 11N96W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N77W 
6N93W 10N98W 7N109W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N131W 23N127W. A SECOND 
SHORTWAVE LIES ALONG 32N105W 20N96W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
NEAR 14N113 WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 10N140W. A RIDGE 
ALSO EXTENDS E TO A CREST NEAR 11N97W. THE ASSOCIATED 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CRESTS ALONG POINTS 18N140W 24N123W 21N106W.
RESULTANT DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 20N140W 27N123W 23N100W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION W OF 85W IS ADVECTED ENE UNDER THE RIDGE WITH A PLUME 
TURNING N OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 18N94W 30N91W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS AT 30N134W 1024 MB WITH RIDGE 
SE TO 11N115W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS 
OBSERVED N OF 16N W OF 122W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER S AMERICA AT 11S67W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO 7N78W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE 
ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 80W WITH THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE STILL SPREADING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 80W TO NEAR PANAMA. 

$$
NELSON