000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311711
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W.
THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM
24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ 5N78W 7N90W 10N99W 9N106W 8N110W 9N115W 7N123W 6N133W 
6N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N88W 6N91W 8N95W...AND 
10N96W 9N100W 7N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RATHER FLAT HEIGHT PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA.  

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 32N133W TO 27N134W. UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PUSHING THE TROUGH EASTWARD...AND
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM 30N120W INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 
140W. 

1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N135W. BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 113W.
THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N104W IS THE REMNANT
OF ALETTA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 5 KT AND IT IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 104W AND 105W.

$$
MT