000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA IS ESTIMATED NEAR 16.4N 103.9W AT 
2100 UTC. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM... 
SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. ALETTA IS MOVING W AT 5 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION  NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N103W. CURRENT 
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND REGENERATION IS 
UNLIKELY. THE REMNANTS OF ALETTA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE W AND 
GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 2N HAS MOVED W 10 KT THE PAST OF 
DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N TO 9N.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N76W 7N83W 10N94W 7N103W 8N118W 
5N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 7N85W 5N90W 7N94W 5N101W 
8N104W AND FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N140W 26N140W. A SECOND 
SHORTWAVE LIES ALONG 32N113W 17N95W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
NEAR 10N124W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 9N140W. A RIDGE 
ALSO EXTENDS NE TO A CREST NEAR 20N100W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
PUSHES N ALONG 120W BETWEEN THE THE TWO TROUGHS. RESULTANT DRY 
UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 20N W OF 100W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 110W IS ADVECTED N UNDER THE RIDGE TO ALONG 
21N ATTM.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS AT 30N133W 1026 MB WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 15N113W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED N OF 16N W OF 120W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER S AMERICA AT 11S66W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE EQUATOR AT 81W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER 
THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 80W WITH 
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING NE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 13N83W 
9N87W. 

$$
NELSON