000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271635
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E LOCATED AT 15.1N 101.3W AT 1500 UTC 
27 MAY MOVING N AT 4 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 GUSTS TO 40 
KT.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W FROM 2N-10N MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 W OF AXIS.  UPPER 
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION 
WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...AXIS 7N79W 14N99W 5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
82W TO 95W AND FROM 100W TO 103W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS FROM 32N109W 26N111W 26N134W 
21N140W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
N AND W OF AXIS.  MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 10N118W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 11N99W.  WEAK 
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO REGION BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH AND 
RIDGE.

WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG 96W REMAINS S OF INFLUENCING T.D. 
ONE-E UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN ALLOWING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER 
SYSTEM.  SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AND COULD ALLOW T.D. 
ONE-E TO INTENSIFY WITHIN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  SECOND 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER FEEDS UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ITCZ E OF 95W AND LETS MAINTAINS WEAK 
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER TROPICAL WAVE AT 88W.  
SHOULD THIS RIDGE MOVE FURTHER S FORCED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
PRESENTLY OVER WRN MEXICO...IT COULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING OF 
TROPICAL WAVE.  

SURFACE FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E EXPECTED TO BECOME STORM WITHIN NEXT 
12 HRS.  MOST DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED E OF CENTER WITH 
LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING WRAPPING AROUND CENTER.   

HIGH PRES 1027 NW OF E PAC WATERS HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N115W 
PRODUCING BRISK TRADE WINDS UNDER ITS COVER.  STRONG BUT 
DECREASING NW WINDS HUG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH LARGE 
SWELL N OF 25N E OF 122W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES