000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.5W AT 1000 
UTC 27 MAY. MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM 
E SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 2N WAS MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AXIS. NO ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...AXIS 7N77W 7N91W 14N102W 7N122W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
A LINE FROM 5N78W TO 7N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF A 
LINE FROM 10N106W TO 6N132W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER TROUGH ALONG 115W MOVING ENE TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED 
JUST W OF 140W. LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER TX. A 
LARGE UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA ALONG 120W WILL LOWER MID LEVEL 
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH. LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE UPPER RIDGE JUST W OF 140W.

FOR DAY 2 UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. 
THE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 20N. THE UPPER RIDGE W OF 140W APPEARS 
TO DRIFT WWD AND LOSE AMPLITUDE AS THE WESTERLIES BECOME MORE 
ZONAL N OF 30N AND W OF 130W.


SURFACE FEATURES...

THE MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT IS THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM S OF 
THE MEXICAN COAST. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN INCREASE IN 
CONVECTION RIGHT OF THE CENTER AND A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. 

THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED JUST NW OF THE REGION. 
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 15N110W. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT 
SHOW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ENTERING THE REGION E OF 125W N OF 26N. 
NW SWELL 9 TO 12 FT EXTEND S ALONG THE BAJA COAST TO 24N.  THE 
RIDGE IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 
10N AND 20N W OF 130W.

LATER DAY 1 THE TROPICAL LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING N WITH 
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE 
WITH TRADES REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
WILL REMAIN NWLY TO 20 KT WITH SWELL 9 TO 12 FT.

FOR DAY 2 THE TROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NNW ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST. POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BUT INTERACTION 
WITH THE MEXICAN COASTLINE COULD INTERFERE WITH MUCH 
STRENGTHENING.  THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EWD AND WILL 
MAINTAIN NE TRADES W OF 125W TO 25 KT. NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH NW SWELL DECREASING TO 8 TO 10 
FT.

$$
RRG