000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRES 1007 MB NEAR 14N101W IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A LOW 
LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION RACING OFF TO THE W AT SUNSET...THUS
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IF ANY WILL OCCUR SLOWLY. 
HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 210 NM OVER SE SEMICIRCLE WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADING NE ACROSS SE MEXICO. CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED OVER THE 
NW SEMICIRCLE DUE TO STRONG UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THE LOW HAS BEEN 
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
NORTHWARD DRIFT THROUGH THE FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 2N HAS MOVED W 10 KT THE PAST 24 
HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
WITH 30 NM OF AXIS AT 5N. A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION 
CONTINUES E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF 8N83W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...AXIS 8N78W 6N97W 11N102W 6N122W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 6N78W 7N87W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
11N106W 8N116W AND WITHIN 15 NM OF 9.5N123W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING ONSHORE THE OREGON COAST WITH A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED SSE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N119W THROUGH ANOTHER CYCLONE ESTIMATED NEAR 25N117W TO A 
BASE NEAR 9N116W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 21N W OF 120W 
AND N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 100W...AND S OF THE ITCZ 
ALONG 3N FOR THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE LOW LEVELS A 
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N137W TO 13N110W WITH BROKEN TO LOCALLY 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS N OF 14N W OF 113W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N124W WITH ITS ENVELOPE 
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE 
ITCZ TO 21N BETWEEN 142W AND 120W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION W OF 123W IS ADVECTED N BUT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED NEAR 
9N122W AND IS ANALYZED AS 1099 MB SURFACE LOW. INTERMITTENT 
CONVECTION...LESS THAN TWO TENTHS BANDING...IS FLARING WELL TO W 
OF THE EXPOSED CENTER AT SUNSET.  

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 
13N79W WITH BROAD RIDGE CRESTING ALONG POINTS 20N96W 28N82W 
29N68W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 103W 
AND 115W...AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES AT 
14N101W...IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE... 
ROUGHLY WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 14N97W 21N89W 
24N78W 23N63W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS ALSO 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W AND 74W BUT THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. 

$$
NELSON