000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 2N MOVING W 10 KT.  A SIGNIFICANT 
AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE WAVE OVER 
THE GULF OF PANAMA.  NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE RELOCATED TO ALONG 101W FROM 7N TO 15N.  THE WAVE 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W 10 KT.  A LOW PRES IS NEAR 12.5N ALONG THE 
WAVE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 12.6N99.2W. 
THE CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE ORGANIZATION BUT HAS PERSISTED FOR A 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 10N100W 5N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 
7N79.1W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 5.3N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 12.7N99.7W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 10N FROM 110W TO 
114W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD TROUGH OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 22N E OF 130W.  WITHIN THIS 
AREA SKIES ARE CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 95W TO 115W 
FROM 5N TO 17N.  THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION...SEE THE WAVE AND 
LOW NEAR 101W.  ALSO A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS 
EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS FLOWING NORTHEAST ON THE 
EASTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  THE MOISTURE IS 
FLOWING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. 

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED WITH A MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE.  SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS AWAY FROM THE ITCZ HOWEVER OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS 
FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF 10N WEST OF 110W.

AT THE SURFACE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 32N140W 
DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE ITCZ.  THE 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER A SIMILAR BROAD 
CYCLONIC AREA IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

$$
LL