000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260958 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI MAY 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 KT. THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT NO ORGANIZATION. THE ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W FROM 7N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THERE HAS BEEN AN AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N104W THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOWS LITTLE ORGANIZATION BUT HAS PERSISTED. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...6N83W 12N101W 10N121W 7N124W 7N136W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OR 3N E OF 86W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N104W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 9N111W AND 9N113W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 7N125W 6N128W AND 6N139W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 125W N OF 20N MOVING EWD TONIGHT. GFS MODEL LOOKS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 140W THANKS TO A POWERFUL UPPER VORTEX OVER THE MID PACIFIC. THE RIDGE EXTENDS E AND NE OVER LOWER BAJA AND NRN MEXICO TONIGHT. LATER TODAY LOOK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE TO ALONG 115W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AMPLITUDE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY ANCHORED JUST W OF 140W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. FOR DAY 2 MID LATITUDE ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY SWD BETWEEN 110W AND 130W LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. THE OLD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST W OF 140W BUT IT'S ERN EXTENSION WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS FALL BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. SURFACE FEATURES... THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS A DOMINATE FEATURE TONIGHT. A HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N140W AT 1032 MB ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH AS LAST NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO 15N110W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT W OF 130W AND NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 23N E OF 125W TO THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. SSMI HAS A SIMILAR PATTERN BUT LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER ALONG THE BAJA COAST THAN QUIKSCAT..BUT SHIP OBS SHOW WINDS NW 20 KT E OF 125W. THE NW WINDS ARE PRODUCING NW SWELL OF 9 TO 12 FT. LATER TODAY LITTLE CHANGE W OF 125W BUT SOME DECREASE IN NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TO 15 TO 20 KT. NW SWELL OF 9 TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SRN COAST OF MEXICO SWD ALONG THE COAST TO PANAMA. FOR DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH NE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO MAINLY 20 KT. POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SRN MEXICAN COAST AS A WEAK LOW MOVES NNW TO NEAR 16N102W. NW SWELL ALONG THE UPPER BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN 9 TO 12 FT. $$ RRG