000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 79W FROM 4N TO 9N MOVING 
W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPORATIC WITH NO DEVELOPING 
ORGANIZATION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 6N TO 13N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.  
POSSIBLE LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB NEAR 11N102W. CONVECTION HAS 
BEEN QUITE ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT AND HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZING INTO A BAND ON THE RIGHT SIDE. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW 
OVER TOP OF THE CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SHEAR IS AIDING THE 
CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N77W 11N100W 8N119W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM 5N79W TO 6N90W TO 13N98W. SCATTERED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N100W TO 10N108W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE NEAR 9N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 7N126W 
TO 4N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 20N STRETCHES FROM 140W TO LOWER BAJA 
AND OVER THE NRN HALF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL 
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BETWEEN 110W AND 120W AS THE UPPER RIDGE 
STRENGTHENS ALONG 100W. 

FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR THE TROUGH TO DEEPEN BETWEEN 110W AND 120W 
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ALONG 100W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER 
THE WRN PORTION WORKS IT'S WAY WWD..MAINLY W OF 120W BETWEEN 10N 
AND 20N. 


SURFACE FEATURES...

ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A LARGE PACIFIC HIGH 1027 MB IS NEAR 
30N137W WITH AN AXIS SE TO 12N110W. NE TRADES TO 25 KT ARE 
DEPICTED IN QUIKSCAT AND SSMI IMAGERY..IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. BOTH ALSO SHOW NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 
25N W OF THE BAJA COAST WITH NW SWELL TO 12 FT. A WEAK LOW 1010 
MB WAS NEAR 11N99W MOVING W SLOWLY. THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WTIH A 
TROPICAL WAVE. 

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH WINDS 
REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME. THE WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING W 
WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST NW TO 20 KT. NE TRADES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME 
AT 20 TO 25 KT MAINLY W OF 125W. THE WEAK LOW DRIFTS NW TO NEAR 
14N101W AND STRENGTHENS SOME ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL.


$$
RRG