000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 78W FROM 4N TO 9N MOVING 
W 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 6N TO 13N MOVING W 15 KT.  WAVE 
AXIS NOW W OF LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB NEAR 11N99W WHICH REMAINS 
STATIONARY.  NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
7N TO 12N WITHIN 300 NM W OF AXIS AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW PRES 
CENTER.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN 
AREA.  SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST INTENSIFYING LOW PRES CENTER 1008 
MB WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS.  SOLUTION LIKELY AS INGREDIENTS FALLING 
FAVORABLY IN PLACE BY THEN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N81W 11N96W 4N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 300 NM OF AXIS FROM 90W TO 105W AND WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS W OF 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 15N117W MAINTAINS 
LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR N OF 12N W OF 105W EXCEPT MINOR INTRUSION 
OF MOISTURE FROM 19N TO 24N W OF 132W RIDING ON 70 KT JET CORE.  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF RIDGE AS ITCZ 
BECOMES VERY ACTIVE UNDER A MODERATE DIFFLUENCE S OF 10N.  

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 12N107W WITH 
WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE S TO 8N109W.  MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENT 
PATTERN WITH BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST ENHANCES DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRES CENTER AT THE SURFACE.  LOTS OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HEADS NE FROM BROAD AREA OF LOW 
PRES MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS YUCATAN...WRN CUBA...STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA AND INTO SW N ATLC WHERE A WEAK TROUGH USES IT FOR 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 

AT THE SURFACE...BUILDING HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER NW CORNER OF E 
PAC WATERS INCREASING NE TRADES ACROSS AREA W OF 120W N OF 10N 
AND N OF 23N E OF 120W.  S-SW WARM MOIST CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS 
APPROACHING S HEMISPHERE OF BROAD LOW PRES AREA DETERIORATING 
SEA CONDITIONS FROM 95W TO 120W.   

$$
WALLY BARNES