000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242229
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER WRN COLOMBIA ALONG 77W FROM 4N TO 10N MOVING 
W 15 KT.  WAVE MOVE OFF COLOMBIAN COAST WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF AXIS...BUT 
DECREASING AS IT ENTERS E PAC BASIN.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT.  WAVE AXIS HAS 
BEEN TRAILING E OF LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 10N98W HAS NOW CAUGHT 
UP AND EVEN PASS W OF LOW PRES CENTER WHICH REMAINS STATIONARY.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 12N 
WITHIN 360 NM W OF AXIS AND WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW PRES CENTER. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN AREA BUT 
SEVERAL MINUTE SWIRLS FORM AND BREAK DOWN IN VICINITY OF 
CONVECTION.  SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST INTENSIFYING LOW PRES
CENTER 1008 MB WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS.  SOLUTION LIKELY AS 
INGREDIENTS FALLING FAVORABLY IN PLACE BY THEN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N84W 12N91W 10N105W 3N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 360 NM OF AXIS FROM 90W TO 
105W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAINTAINS LARGE AREA 
OF DRY AIR N OF 14N W OF 110W EXCEPT MINOR INTRUSION OF MOISTURE 
FROM 21N TO 24N W OF 135W RIDING ON 65 KT JET CORE.  PLENTY OF 
MOISTURE ON SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF RIDGE AS ITCZ BECOMES VERY 
ACTIVE UNDER A MODERATE DIFFLUENCE S OF 10N.  

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 14N104W WITH 
WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE S TO 8N106W.  MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENT 
PATTERN WITH BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST ENHANCES DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRES CENTER AT THE SURFACE.  LOTS OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HEADS NE FROM BROAD AREA OF LOW 
PRES MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS YUCATAN...WRN CUBA...STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA AND INTO SW N ATLC WHERE A WEAK TROUGH USES IT FOR 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 

AT THE SURFACE...BUILDING HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER NW CORNER OF E 
PAC WATERS INCREASING NE TRADES ACROSS AREA W OF 120W N OF 10N 
AND N OF 23N E OF 120W.  S-SW WARM MOIST CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS 
APPROACHING S HEMISPHERE OF BROAD LOW PRES AREA DETERIORATING 
SEA CONDITIONS FROM 95W TO 120W.   

$$
WALLY BARNES