000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER WRN COLOMBIA ALONG 76W N OF 2N MOVING W 15 
KT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 5N 
E OF 79W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W/98W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. A BROAD 
1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N BASED ON A FEW 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS...QUIKSCAT IMAGERY...AND THE OVERALL SATELLITE 
PRESENTATION. THE WAVE/LOW APPEARED SOMEWHAT RAGGED OVERNIGHT... 
BUT THE CIRCULATION NOW SEEMS TO BE BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED 
AROUND A COMMON CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN FORMING 
AROUND THE PROPOSED CENTER. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT SOME SORT 
OF BANDING FEATURES MAY BE FORMING...BUT THESE TRENDS WILL BE 
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 95W-100W. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 
ENSEMBLES...CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE 
CIRCULATION IS FINALLY BECOMING MORE COMPACT...BUT MORE 
WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL FIRST BE NECESSARY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 13N94W 8N102W 9N110W 6N120W 
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 
87W-94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS PRODUCING MAINLY W/SWLY WINDS ALOFT N 
OF 20N. THE SUBTROPICAL JET RUNS WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH A 70 KT 
JET CORE ALONG 27N140W 27N130W. MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED 
AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY DRY HEADING E WITHIN THE 
JET TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG 
29N/30N WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N128W...AND THIS 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHICH IS INCREASING WINDS ALONG 
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WITHIN THE TRADES. FARTHER S...AN UPPER 
RIDGE IS ALONG 14N/15N WITH A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 14N117W. A FEW 
TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE UNDERSIDE OF THE RIDGE WITHIN THE 
ITCZ...BUT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.

E OF 110W...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR ACAPULCO 
TO 11N107W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE AXIS. THE 
UPPER FLOW E OF THIS TROUGH IS HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT THERE IS A 
SENSE OF BROAD DIFFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW 
ALONG 97W. NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE ITCZ SWD 
TO THE EQUATOR...AND SW FLOW EXTENDS N ACROSS SE MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ECUADOR 
NW TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER AND IS MOVING W...USHERING IN 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES FROM ACROSS COLOMBIA.

$$
BERG