000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W S OF 13N MOVE W LESS THAN 10 KT.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 13N WITHIN 150 
NM W AND 90 NM E OF WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W  9N99W  9N115W  7N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IDENTIFIES ITCZ AXIS E OF 120W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  WITHIN 150 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 120W TO 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 15N126W DRIFTS E AS WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH ENTER NW CORNER OF E PAC BASIN.  RIDGE EXTENDS TO 
100W AND KEEPS DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  ONLY ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BRINGS MOIST TROPICAL 
AIR FROM SOUTH AMERICA.  WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG 94W LIES 
BETWEEN BROAD RIDGE AND NEXT ONE DOWNSTREAM CENTERED OVER NE 
CARIBBEAN.  DEFORMATION ZONE ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE TO ESCAPE NE 
RIGHT OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO NW 
CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC JUST OVER AND E OF FLORIDA.  OTHERWISE 
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED S OF 12N BY BOTH RIDGES AND TRACKS W 
ALONG ITCZ. 

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM 32N129W TO 30N135W BRINGS BRISK 
WESTERLIES AND LARGE SWELLS INTO NW CORNER OF E PAC.  FRONT 
WEAKENS AND MOVES N OF AREA BUT WIND AND LARGE SWELLS SPREAD E 
TO REACH CALIFORNIA COAST WITHIN 36 HRS. 

NE TRADES PICK UP AGAIN AS HIGH PRES 1022 MB REBUILDS OVER 
CENTRAL E PAC AND INCREASES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE W OF 120W.  

STRING OF LOW PRES CENTERS ALONG ITCZ INCREASING FLOW OF CROSS 
EQUATORIAL WINDS INTO S SIDE OF AXIS WITH SOME 20 KT EXPECTED E 
OF 110W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES