000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W S OF 13N MOVE W AT 10 KT.  WAVE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AT LOW LEVELS WITH SEVERAL 
DEFINED SURFACE SWIRLS.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
COVERS LARGE AREA WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG ALONG ITCZ WITHIN 360 NM OF WAVE AXIS.   

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N77W  8N88W  9N99W  9N118W  9N130W  7N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IDENTIFIES ITCZ AXIS E 
OF 119W.  SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES CENTERS IDENTIFIED BY SATELLITE 
ALONG AXIS BUT UPPER SUPPORT NOT FAVORABLE OR NEUTRAL EXCEPT IN 
WESTERNMOST SWIRL NEAR 10N100W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS AS WARM HUMID CROSS 
EQUATORIAL WINDS ENTER S PORTIONS OF STRING OF LOW PRES CENTERS 
ALONG ITCZ.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 15N128W MAINTAINS ABSOLUTE 
CONTROL OF AREA N OF 10N W OF 98W WITH DRY AIRMASS UNDER 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  ONLY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
BRINGING MOIST TROPICAL AIR FROM SOUTH AMERICA ESCAPES DRYNESS 
UNDER RIDGE.  WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG 94W LIES BETWEEN BROAD 
RIDGE AND NEXT ONE DOWNSTREAM CENTERED OVER NE CARIBBEAN.  
DEFORMATION ZONE ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE TO ESCAPE NE RIGHT OVER 
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO NW CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC JUST OVER AND 
E OF FLORIDA.  OTHERWISE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED S OF 12N BY 
BOTH RIDGES AND TRACKS W ALONG ITCZ. 

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM 32N129W TO 30N135W BRINGS BRISK 
WESTERLIES AND LARGE SWELLS INTO NW CORNER OF E PAC.  FRONT 
WEAKENS AND MOVES N OF AREA BUT WIND AND LARGE SWELLS SPREAD E 
TO REACH CALIFORNIA COAST WITHIN 48 HRS. 

NE TRADES PICK UP AGAIN AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS OVER CENTRAL E PAC 
AND INCREASES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE W OF 120W.  

STRING OF LOW PRES CENTERS ALONG ITCZ INCREASING FLOW OF CROSS 
EQUATORIAL WINDS INTO S SIDE OF AXIS WITH SOME 20 KT EXPECTED E 
OF 110W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES