000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W TO THE S OF 14N AND HAS MOVED W 
AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE 1218 
UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING TWO POSSIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS 
NEAR 11N98W AND 11N93W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE 
EXISTENCE OF BOTH CENTERS. THE CENTER NEAR 11N98W IS ANALYZED AS 
A SURFACE LOW PRES 1007 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF 
CYCLONIC TURNING AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N86W 10N98W 10N115W 7N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W...AND 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COATS OF 
PANAMA AND N OF 5N...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
105W AND 115W.  

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS NEAR 16N112W AND 14N128W DOMINATE THE 
AREA S OF 22N W OF 110W. MODERATE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 22N AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. SWLY FLOW WAS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF 
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE 
NEAR 46N131W TO 25N152W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT LIES E TO 
W ALONG 32N BETWEEN 130W AND 143W AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A 
TROUGH AND REMAIN JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 24 
HOURS. 

E OF 110W...
ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE EXTENDS EWD ALONG 15N TO 98W/W OF THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT 
N OF 14N W OF 98W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE WELL E OF THE AREA OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS WWD TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. A WEAK 
SHEAR AXIS/COL IS NOTED BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC/12N95W. TROPICAL WAVE NOTED 
ABOVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COL. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 
6-12 HOURS AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS.    

$$
COBB