000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W S OF 14N MOVING W 5 KT.  WAVE HAS 
ELONGATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION HARD TO DEFINE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN WAVE AND COAST.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W  11N92W  8N105W  9N117W  7N129W  8N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 
125W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE ZONAL N OF 20N W 
OF 110W. LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR DUE TO MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
UNDER ZONAL FLOW CURTAILS DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  
STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED AT 17N107W HAS SHARP NARROW 
UPPER RIDGE EXTEND NE TO 23N100W AND SW TO 12N111W WHILE KEEPING 
LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 300 NM OF AXIS.  THIN SWATH OF 
ADVECTED TROPICAL MOISTURE SNEAKS ON NW PERIPHERY OF RIDGE 
TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO WRN TEXAS.  

DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 22N94W HAS WEAK 50 KT 
JET CORE ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO 
CENTRAL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO.  

AT THE SURFACE...ITCZ HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE GIVEN THE ENORMOUS 
AMOUNT OF WATER AVAILABLE FLOWING W ALONG RIDGE SRN PERIPHERY.
SEVERAL LOW PRES SWIRLS HAVE FORMED ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH 
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THEM.  BRISK SW-W 
WINDS ON S SIDE OF LOWS SPREAD ALONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS. 
EASTERNMOST LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W 
STRENGTHENING GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS. 

COLD FRONT ABOUT TO ENTER NW CORNER OF E PAC FORECAST WATERS 
BRINGS IN BRISK NW SURFACE WINDS AND MODERATE SWELLS SPREAD N 
OF 20N W OF 120W.    

$$
WALLY BARNES