000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W S OF 14N MOVING W 5 KT WITH WEAK 
EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 7N91W.  WAVE HAS ELONGATED MID 
LEVEL CIRCULATION GETTING HARD TO DEFINE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN WAVE AND COAST.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N77W 9N90W 8N93W 8N104W 10N115W 8N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 
120W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE ZONAL N OF 20N W 
OF 110W.  NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVED INLAND OVER 
CALIFORNIA / N BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SHARP TURNING OVER ARIZONA 
AND NEVADA PROMPTING LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.  

LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR DUE TO MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER 
ZONAL FLOW CURTAILS DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  STRONG 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED AT 16N105W HAS SHARP NARROW UPPER 
RIDGE EXTEND NE TO 24N102W AND SW TO 12N113W WHILE KEEPING LARGE 
AREA OF DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 300 NM OF AXIS.  THIN SWATH OF 
ADVECTED TROPICAL MOISTURE SNEAKS ON NW PERIPHERY OF RIDGE 
TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO WRN TEXAS.  

DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 23N94W HAS WEAK 50 KT 
JET CORE ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO 
CENTRAL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO.  

AT THE SURFACE...ITCZ HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE GIVEN THE ENORMOUS 
AMOUNT OF WATER AVAILABLE FLOWING W ALONG RIDGE SRN PERIPHERY.
SEVERAL LOW PRES SWIRLS HAVE FORMED ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH 
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THEM.  BRISK SW-W 
WINDS ON S SIDE OF LOWS SPREAD ALONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS. 
EASTERNMOST LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W 
STRENGTHENING GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS. 

COLD FRONT ABOUT TO ENTER NW CORNER OF E PAC FORECAST WATERS 
BRINGS IN BRISK NW SURFACE WINDS AND MODERATE SWELLS SPREAD N 
OF 20N W OF 120W.    

$$
WALLY BARNES