000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W S OF 14N MOVING W 5 KT WITH A 1008 
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 7N. THE WAVE HAS A BROAD AND 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH STRUNG NW/SE 
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SE TO S OF PANAMA. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE MAY MERGE WITH A SECOND LOW NEAR 13N96W 
AND PRODUCE A MORE CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 
89W-93W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N86W 6N92W 10N108W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 78W-87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 94W-117W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE AXIS W OF 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE ZONAL SINCE 
YESTERDAY. A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED 
INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH BROAD 
SWEEPING W/NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS FLOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 
LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AREA OF 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N W OF 112W. A 100 KT UPPER 
LEVEL JET IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER 
NRN BAJA AND SRN ARIZONA...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NE OF THE 
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. AN ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT IS MOVING INLAND FROM YUMA ARIZONA TO 23N120W AND IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO. FARTHER 
S...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 16N110W WITH A RIDGE TO 
10N133W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED PRIMARILY E OF 
THE HIGH...WHILE MOISTURE SURROUNDS IT IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM 
THE ITCZ NEWD TO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

E OF 100W...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA OVER THE WRN GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 13N97W. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR HAS PLUNGED 
S BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...KEEPING THE UPPER MOISTURE SE OF A 
LINE FROM THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER TO 9N100W. THIS DRY AIR 
HAS ESSENTIALLY SQUELCHED ANY DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 
1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12.5N96W. THE ITCZ IS RATHER PERTURBED 
OVER THE AREA AND IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
91W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS GENERATED A BAND OF DEEP 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 
GUATEMALA AND PANAMA.

$$
BERG