000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221152 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT WITH WEAK 1008 
MB LOW PRES CENTER AT 7N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
5N-8N BETWEEN 89W-93W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
COAST BETWEEN THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER AND GUATEMALA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N81W 8N90W 12N109W 12N117W 9N127W 7N140W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN E OF 
86W...AND BETWEEN 94W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...

THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT SWINGS INLAND OVER CA AND BAJA. 
A SUBTROPIC JET IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 
18N130W NE TO S CENTRAL BAJA THEN OVER NRN MEXICO. THE OLD UPPER 
RIDGE CONTINUES S OF 20N EXTENDING NE OVER MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER 
TROUGH LIES OVER SW MEXICO AND IS STATIONARY. 

LATER DAY 1 THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INLAND WITH THE UPPER FLOW 
BECOMING MORE WLY. THE FLOW WILL PENETRATE S TO 20N. THE WEAK 
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH 
OVER SW MEXICO BEGINS TO LIFT NE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN SOME WITH A 
CENTER NEAR LOWER BAJA. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW TO 13N140W. 
UPPER FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME SWLY AS A LARGE UPPER 
TROUGH BEGINS TO APPEAR ON THE HORIZON NW OF THE AREA.

SURFACE FEATURES...

AN OLD COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 30N118W TO 23N123W TONIGHT. MOST 
ACTIVE PART OF THE FRONT WAS N OF 26N WHERE THE FRONT WAS 
PUSHING EWD 15 KT. THE CLOUD BAND S OF 26N ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT WAS BREAKING UP SLOWLY. BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26N NW WINDS 
TO 20 KT WERE STILL BLOWING. NW SWELL OF 9 TO 14 FT HAS MOVED 
INTO THE AREA N OF 25N W OF THE FRONT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA..W 
MEXICAN COAST AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST IS MOSTLY LIGHT TONIGHT.

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE BAJA COAST. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W AND NW 10 TO 15 KT. NW SWELL WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 8 TO 11 FT W OF 120W AND N OF 20N. E TO SE 
WINDS OF 20 KT WILL DEVELOP N OF 10N AND E OF 95W WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT.

FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR THE PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE 
EWD TO NEAR 30N133W AT 1022 MB. THIS WILL INCREASE THE NW WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. TRADES BETWEEN 
10N AND 20N WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 FT WITH SOME 
RESIDUAL NW SWELL. AN AREA OF SLY WINDS OF 20 KT IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP BETWEEN 85W AND 110W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN SLY SWELL. 
THIS IS DEPENDED ON WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY W ALONG 
10N96W.

$$
RRG