000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT WITH WEAK 1007 
MB LOW PRES CENTER AT 7N89W.  SCATTERED CONVECTION MERGED INTO 
ITCZ.  UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS 
ADVERSE AS LOW PRES/WAVE TRAVEL W AND COULD PROMPT DEVELOPMENT 
AFTER 24-36 HRS. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W  8N88W  6N92W  6N95W  12N109W  11N117W  
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 92W...WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW PRES AT 10N118W 
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 34N124W HAS LONGWAVE DIG 
S ACROSS E PAC WATERS TO 16N138W.  JET STREAM 115 KT SPIN AROUND 
BASE OF VORTEX BRINGING WITH IT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO AREA JUST 
WEST OF SRN CALIFORNIA/ N BAJA.  UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SURFACE 
COLD FRONT NOW FROM 32N120W TO 20N129W INCREASES AS TROUGH 
BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED...INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER 
FRONT WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE POSSIBILITIES OF RAIN 
EVENT OVER LAND AREAS. 

DOWNSTREAM...ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 15N113W ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ DEBRIS NE ACROSS S HALF OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND WRN MEXICO WELL AHEAD OF ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH.  
SWATH OF MOIST AIR MASS HAS LITTLE UPLIFTING MECHANISM...EXCEPT 
OROGRAPHIC ONCE AT THE COAST...AND MIGHT NOT BE CAUGHT BY UPPER 
TROUGH. 

CUTOFF CYCLONIC VORTEX OFF SRN TEXAS TIP AT 25N96W HAS HIGH 
AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIG S TO 12N99W AND BRINGING DRY AIRMASS TO 
TROPICAL LATITUDES WITHIN 300 NM W OF AXIS AS MASS CONFLUENCE 
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE PROMOTES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 

AT THE SURFACE...
SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES SWIRLS ARE OBSERVED ON SAT IMAGES AS ITCZ 
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE  AND  MOISTURE MORE ABUNDANT.  FIRST LOW 
PRES EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN ABOVE SECTION. 
FURTHER NW ANOTHER SWIRL JUST S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS GOOD 
SPIN WHILE UPPER SUPPORT REMAIN NEUTRAL. THIRD LOW PRES NEAR 
9N126W HAS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND NOT SO 
UNFAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. 

COLD FRONT FROM 32N120W TO 20N129W HAS STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND 
AND LARGE NW SWELL OVER NW CORNER OF E PAC BASIN.  FRONT MOVES 
OVER W CONUS COAST WITHIN 24 HRS WITH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR 
PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION.  

$$
WALLY BARNES