000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAY 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT WITH WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER AT 7N88W. SCATTERED CONVECTION MERGED INTO ITCZ. UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS ADVERSE AS LOW PRES/WAVE TRAVEL W AND COULD PROMPT DEVELOPMENT AFTER 24-36 HRS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 8N88W 6N92W 6N95W 8N98W 9N104W 12N110W 11N118W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 92W...WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW PRES AT 7N88W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 132W. ...DISCUSSION... STRONG DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N128W HAS LONGWAVE DIG S ACROSS E PAC WATERS TO 16N140W. JET STREAM 115 KT SPIN AROUND BASE OF VORTEX BRINGING WITH IT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO AREA JUST WEST OF SRN CALIFORNIA/ N BAJA. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW FROM 32N122W TO 16N138W INCREASES AS TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED...INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER FRONT WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE POSSIBILITIES OF RAIN EVENT OVER LAND AREAS. DOWNSTREAM...ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 14N113W ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ DEBRIS NE ACROSS S HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WRN MEXICO WELL AHEAD OF ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. SWATH OF MOIST AIR MASS HAS LITTLE UPLIFTING MECHANISM...EXCEPT OROGRAPHIC ONCE AT THE COAST...AND MIGHT NOT BE CAUGHT BY UPPER TROUGH. CUTOFF CYCLONIC VORTEX OFF SRN TEXAS TIP AT 26N96W HAS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIG S TO 12N99W AND BRINGING DRY AIRMASS TO TROPICAL LATITUDES WITHIN 300 NM W OF AXIS AS MASS CONFLUENCE WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE PROMOTES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE... SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES SWIRLS ARE OBSERVED ON SAT IMAGES AS ITCZ BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND MOISTURE MORE ABUNDANT. FIRST LOW PRES OFF COSTA RICA HAS BRISK S-SW WINDS BRING WARM MOIST CROSS EQUATORIAL AIR MASS INTO ITCZ. SLIGHTLY FURTHER NW ANOTHER SWIRL JUST S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS GOOD SPIN WHILE UPPER SUPPORT REMAIN NEUTRAL. GOOD SPINNING CLOUDS NEAR 7N88W AS MENTIONED IN TROPICAL WAVE SECTION HAS CONVECTION MERGING WITH ITCZ. ANOTHER LOW PRES NEAR 9N125W HAS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND NOT SO UNFAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. COLD FRONT FROM 32N122W TO 16N138W HAS STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND AND LARGE NW SWELL OVER NW CORNER OF E PAC BASIN. FRONT MOVES OVER W CONUS COAST WITHIN 24 HRS WITH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION. $$ WALLY BARNES