000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN 1130 
UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED 
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N BUT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL A LITTLE 
ELONGATED AND RATHER WEAK (10 KT OR LESS). SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING N OF THE LOW FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 88W-91W... 
AND THERE IS CONVECTION FARTHER S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N89W 9N104W 11N116W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N E OF 92W...AND FROM 
6N-10N BETWEEN 95W-98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W-130W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 75 
NM OF THE AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST 
NEAR 34N129W...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS 
THE AREA FROM 30N130W TO 23N140W. THE LOW IS BOUNDED BY TWO 
JETS...A 110 KT JET CORE ON THE SE SIDE AND A 130 KT JET ON THE 
W SIDE MOVING S TOWARDS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED AHEAD 
OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM 30N123W TO 23N130W...AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 150 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 25N. 
ELSEWHERE...A WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N114W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE TROPICS TO 8N140W AND NWD 
TO THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 30N112W. SEVERAL WEAK LOWS ARE 
EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 12N110W...10N118W...AND 9N126W AND 
ARE CAUSING SCATTERED AREAS OF TSTMS...BUT NONE OF THESE 
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

E OF 105W...
MID/UPPER LOW IS SPIRALING ALONG THE E MEXICAN COAST JUST N OF 
TAMPICO AND THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS S TO 12N 
BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...WITHIN 425 
NM SW OF THE MEXICAN COAST IN THIS SAME AREA. A 1009 MB HAS 
DEVELOPED JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 13N96W AND IS 
LOCATED BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH...HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
12N-15N BETWEEN 93W-97W. IN FACT...THIS DIFFLUENCE IS ACTUALLY 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE CENTERED NEAR 11N94W WITH 
RIDGING TO THE SW AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND TROUGHING OVER 
MEXICO AND S OF ECUADOR.

$$
BERG