000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N81W 11N105W 11N119W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 6N78W 6N84W 5N89W 
AND 9N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N116W TO 8N128W TO 9N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE UPPER VORTEX LOCATED NEAR 35N130W WITH A CIRCULATION 
DOWN TO 20N AND W OF 115W. THE CENTER IS MOVING SLOWLY E. THE 
SYSTEM APPEARS CUT OFF BUT THERE STILL IS A GOOD SUPPLY OF NLY 
COLD AIR ON THE WEST SIDE TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE LIES 
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N AND EXTENDS NE OVER NW MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH 
CONTINUES OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF MEXICO EXTENDING TO 
17N105W.

LATER TODAY THE STRONG VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE ELY BUT IT 
WILL STILL DOMINATE THE REGION N OF 20N. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
OTHER FEATURES.

BY LATE DAY 2 THE UPPER VORTEX SWINGS INLAND OVER SRN CA..NRN 
BAJA AND NW MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW W OF THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE 
WLY BUT STILL AFFECTS TO THE REGION N OF 20N. THE UPPER RIDGE 
CONTINUES OVER SW MEXICO DAY 2 WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER 
S CENTRAL MEXICO MOVES SLOWLY EWD.

SURFACE FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA 
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N125W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 22N135W. 
THE FRONT IS MOVING E AND SE ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT. A BAND OF MID 
LEVEL CLOUDS ABOUT 100 NM WIDE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT. BEHIND THE 
FRONT IS A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN LOW TO MID LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS.
W OF THE FRONT NW TO N WINDS INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILD 9 
TO 12 FT WITH NW SWELL. AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ACTIVE ON THE 
ITCZ BUT THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.

LATER TODAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR 30N122W EXTENDING SSW TO 
NEAR 20N128W. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH NW 
SWELL INCREASING 10 TO 15 FT. 

BY LATE DAY 2 THE FRONT WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES 
INLAND. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT 
N OF 25N. NW SWELL OF 9 TO 11 FT WILL MOVE SE AND COVER AN AREA 
N OF 20N AND W OF 120W.

$$
RRG