000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N83W  9N88W  12N96W  11N114W  4N133W  5N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 89W TO 
96W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS W OF 114W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH ENTER E PAC FORECAST WATERS FROM 32N129W TO 
21N140W.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 240 NM W OF AXIS.  JET 
STREAM 105 KT DRAGS MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF AXIS TO CYCLONIC 
VORTEX WELL N OF AREA.  TROUGH DIGGING SE SUPPORTS COLD FRONT 
WHICH EXTENDS FROM 30N126W TO 24N135W.  BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE 13N115W WITH ELONGATED RIDGE TO 32N110W COVERS AREA 
N OF 12N WITH DRY AIRMASS RESULT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DUE TO CONFLUENT AIR MASS ALOFT. 

SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES RIDGE MAINTAINS GOOD E FLOW 
ALOFT OVER ITCZ ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA 
CONTINENT ALL THE WAY TO 140W.

AT THE SURFACE...WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT REMAIN STRONG BUT IT IS 
LARGE SWELL SPREADING S BEHIND THAT WILL AFFECT THE MOST.  NWW3 
BRINGS 15 FT N OF 27N IN LINE WITH SHIP REPORTS OF 14 FT AND UP 
TO 18 FT JUST N OF 30N.     

E OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER S TEXAS COAST HAS WEAK 
TROUGH DIG S INTO TO 11N100W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS 
INDICATED OVER MEXICO EXCEPT EXTREME S CORNER.  DIFFLUENT UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENHANCES ITCZ DEEP 
CONVECTION E OF 96W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES