000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191534 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI MAY 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 12N94W 9N110W 6N127W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 3N E OF 80W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 90-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-130W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE W COAST OF THE US WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE PAC NW...BUT A STRONG NLY UPPER JET ON THE BACK SIDE WILL CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW UPPER LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WILL CAUSE BROAD TROUGHING TO REMAIN N OF 22N W OF 120W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 30N129W TO 24N133W BUT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SECONDARY SURGE LIES FARTHER W FROM 30N133W TO 25N140W. SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 20N140W TO THE TOP OF A RIDGE NEAR 26N124W...PULLING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE ITCZ. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IS SUPPORTING A NEARLY OVERCAST MARINE LAYER N OF 20N E OF 122W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N110W TO NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA WITH BROAD W/SWLYS ALOFT SKIRTING ACROSS SE MEXICO AND NRN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING A SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ THAT EXTENDS SW OF THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT TWO SEPARATE DISORGANIZED CIRCULATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 12N94W AND 10N104W BUT THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE NELY FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH DIVERGENCE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SPREADING THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW SW TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. $$ BERG