000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 8N78W 8N86W 12N98W 6N130W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
6N86W 11N95W 7N119W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N W OF 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS AT 33N136W AND SHIFTING NE WITH TIME. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S TO A BASE OVER THE ITCZ AT 8N146W. A SURFACE 
FRONT IS BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 32N131W 22N138W.

A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 10N130W WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE AMPLIFYING N BEYOND 32N119W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 23N122W 16N140W. DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ORIGINATING FROM ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE...AND W OF 
100W...SPREADS NE BUT SEEMS TO EVAPORATE ALONG 15N AS DRY UPPER AIR 
IS INDICATED ELSEWHERE N OF THE ITCZ W OF 100W. 

THE RIDGE SEPARATES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W PORTION FROM AN 
UPPER TROUGH LYING ALONG 32N85W 19N94W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION E OF 100W IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 71W.

GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI AND Q-SCAT INDICATE THAT N WINDS IN THE  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

$$
NELSON