000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG...9N78W 10N97W 8N110W 7N117W 6N124W 6N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 7N88W 9N88W AND 7N134W. ISOLATED STRONG 
NEAR 9N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 9N100W TO 
7N122W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED NEAR 32N141W MOVING ESE 15 
KT. AN OPEN RIDGE WAS LOCATED ALONG 125W AND EXTENDED WELL N OF THE 
AREA. FOR DAY 1 THE VORTEX WILL MOVE TO NEAR 31N138W. LITTLE 
MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER RIDGE. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
RIDGE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE LITTLE.   

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG VORTEX WILL MOVE EWED TO NEAR 30N130W. THE 
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR 15N125W WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING 
NE OVER NRN BAJA AND NW MEXICO. THE EMBEDDED UPPER LOW WILL WEAK AS 
IT DRIFTS TO THE SRN TIP OF BAJA. 

SURFACE FEATURES...

ON THE SURFACE A LOW PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N141W 1007 MB. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO OUR REGION ALONG 30N135W SW TO 
23N140W. WINDS N OF 25N W OF 134W ARE 20 TO 25 KT. NW SWELL TO 9 FT 
FOLLOWS THE FRONT. FOR DAY 1 THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 31N138W WITH 
THE FRONT MOVING TO 30N133W 22N140W. LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS AND SEAS.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS S ALONG 125W AND WILL REMAIN 
STATIONARY TODAY. 

FOR DAY 2 THE LOW MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH THE FRONT 
DISSIPATING ALONG 130W. A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES SE TO 30N134W 
25N140W. WINDS FOLLOWING THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL INCREASE OUT OF 
THE N AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH SWELL INCREASING TO 9 FT. REMAINDER OF THE 
REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN ALONG 125W.

$$
RRG