000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180336
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N78W 
10N100W 5N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 
NM OF LINE 6N85W 11N98W 7N110W. ISOLATED MODERATE 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 
110W AND 140W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS AT 32N142W WITH MEAN UPPER TROUGH S TO 
13N148W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONE 
COVERING THE REGION N OF 25N BETWEEN 130W AND 138W. A SURFACE FRONT 
IS BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 32N135W 24N140W ACCOMPANIED BY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF 28.5N135W. 

A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 11N128W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
AMPLIFYING N BEYOND 32N125W. THE RIDGE SEPARATES THE UPPER TROUGH 
OVER THE NW PORTION FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N116W WITH AN 
ILL-DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A BASE ESTIMATED NEAR 12N112W. A 
BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE ROUGHLY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 23N126W 15N140W. 
OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ W OF 
101W...AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG THE 
ITCZ W OF 110W.

THE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 112W IS ENHANCING 
ITCZ CONVECTION AND TAPS THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE E OF 110W AND 
ADVECTS IT NNE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 
LINE 16N84W 22N80W.
  
GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI AND Q-SCAT INDICATE THAT NE WINDS IN THE  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 20-25 KT AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE 
BELOW 20 KT IN IN 42 HOURS. 

$$
NELSON