000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 10N95W 6N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 6N80W 10N96W 7N120W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS AT 32N142W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH S TO 
15N150W. A SURFACE FRONT IS ALONG 32N137W 24N140W ACCOMPANIED BY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
IS NEAR 12N135W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING N BEYOND 32N125W. 
THE RIDGE SEPARATES THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W FROM ANOTHER UPPER
CYCLONE AT 27N114W WITH AN ILL-DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A BASE 
ESTIMATED NEAR 11N110W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N136W 22N131W 11N140W. OTHERWISE 
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 108W...AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 
120W.

THE UPPER FLOW E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 112W IS DIVERGENT AND ENHANCING 
ITCZ CONVECTION AND TAPS THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE E OF 107W 
AND ADVECTS IT NNE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
  
GAPS WINDS...LATEST SSMI AND Q-SCAT INDICATE THAT NLY WINDS IN THE  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE AND EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 54 HOURS. 

$$
NELSON