000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171014
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N78W  9N100W  7N120W  6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS E OF 110W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 32N145W HAS LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH 
EXTEND DUE SOUTH WITH 110 KT JET STREAM ENCROACH INTO E PAC BASIN N 
OF 20N W OF 130W.  MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 12N130W 
HAS BROAD RIDGE EXTEND W OF 110W WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALONG ITS AXIS N OF 12N...WITH EXCEPTION OF 
MOISTURE CARRIED BY AFOREMENTIONED JET.  ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
RIDGE...STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TRAILING ALL THE WAY FROM 
COLOMBIA EXTENDS ALONG ITCZ THROUGH ENTIRE BASIN...ALTHOUGH VERY 
LITTLE ACTIVITY NOTED W OF 120W.  

E OF 110W...
ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N90W ACROSS E PAC TO 
10N110W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ALONG ITCZ AXIS E OF 110W.  DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 
ABC ISLANDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SUPPLIES ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO WEAK 70 
KT JET CORE BRINGING PLENTY OF WATER INTO COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING 
SRN FLORIDA AND SW N ATLC.

AT THE SURFACE...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW CORNER OF E PAC IN INCREASING S WINDS 
WHILE LARGE NW SWELLS IN THE UPPER TEENS RANGE INTO FORECAST WATERS. 
FRONT QUICKLY LOSES POWER AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TURNS N-NE BUT 
SWELLS REMAIN THROUGH 48 HRS IN AREA.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS SHORT LIVED GALE FORCE N WIND CROSS THE 
ISTHMUS TODAY.  HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO QUICKLY TURN WINDS 
AROUND AND CUTS OFF AIR MASS SUPPLY.     

$$
WALLY BARNES