000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 5N83W 9N95W 7N113W 8N126W 
7N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE AXIS E OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 84W TO 92W...AND 
95W TO 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 5N112W 
6N115W AND WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF 8N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
TROUGH...RIDGE...TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA TODAY. A LARGE AND VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED MOIST SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE 
TROUGH COVERS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF LINE 
24N140W TO 30N132W. A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS N ALONG 126N.  
FARTHER E...SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR 27N118W.  THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH 
WEST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN...WITH A CUT-OFF LOW FORMING 
JUST NW OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE AND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY.

FARTHER S...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 13N130W AND MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE TO ITS E IS CREATING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS N OF THE 
ITCZ. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE 
LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT 
FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY.

E OF 110W...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW COAST OF 
MEXICO ABOUT 120 NM W OF ACAPULCO ALONG 18N102W TO 11N108W. EAST OF 
THE TROUGH A MOIST SWLY FLOW IS ADVECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
NWD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
FARTHER N AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SE ACROSS WRN 
GULF OF MEXICO. 

MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NW COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W ALONG 9N TO NEAR 100W. AREAS OF DIFFLUENT UPPER 
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE AIDING IN THE DEVELOP OF CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ. THE MOST 
CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
BROWN