000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161024
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W  6N86W  8N94W  6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 104W TO 113W  AND  FROM 
128W TO 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVER ENTIRE AREA W OF 110W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE FROM 10N TO 20N STRETCHES UNDER RIDGE UMBRELLA. 
JET STREAM 100 KT ENTERS AREA FROM 20N TO 23N BRINGING SWATH OF 
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO E PAC BASIN.  WHILE NOT YET 
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL 
CONDITIONS...IF THIS WATER IS AVAILABLE FOR ARRIVAL OF WEAK COLD 
FRONT NOW CROSSING NW EDGE OF E PAC...A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COULD 
BE UNDER WAY. 

ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...VERY LONG MOISTURE SWATH 
CROSSES ENTIRE EPAC ALONG ITCZ S OF 10N AS IT COMES AVAILABLE OFF 
SOUTH AMERICA CONTINENT.  FAVORABLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE PROMPTED SCATTERED ITCZ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUT SACKS 
UPPER SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN IT FOR LONG. 
 
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT IN NW CORNER OF E PAC NOT TOO BIG 
INCREASING WINDS BUT CERTAINLY BIG IN MOVING LARGE NW SWELLS OVER 
AREA.  FAST DECAY ACTION OF S WINDS MIGHT EXEMPT FORECAST WATERS 
FROM HUGH 25 FT SWELLS NOW JUST N OF 32N.    

E OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND S MEXICO FROM NEAR 
TAMPICO OVER MEXICO CITY INTO E PAC TO 10N110W.  DIFFLUENT FLOW SE 
OF TROUGH AXIS ENHANCING ITCZ ACTIVITY E OF 100W.  DEEP MOIST SW 
FLOW BRINGS BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS NE INTO SRN 
MEXICO AND NRN CENTRAL AMERICA.  MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM ANTICYCLONE NEAR S TIP OF BAJA OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF N 
MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND COLD FRONT OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO FORCING WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS SHOULD 
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS ON PACIFIC SIDE WITH INCREASING WINDS TO 25 
KT AND GUSTY PEAKING WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS THEN START DIMINISHING BACK 
TO LIGHT WIND.  

LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY MONITORED NEAR 10N100W HAS LOST MOST DEFINED 
CIRCULATION AND REMOVED FROM ANALYSIS MAP.  APPARENTLY STRONG UPPER 
SHEAR WORKED TO ARREST ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IT HAD. 


$$
WALLY BARNES