000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 10N95W 6N120W 7N130W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 
100W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND S MEXICO FROM 
NEAR TAMPICO OVER MEXICO CITY THEN EMERGING INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 
18N103W AND EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NEAR 8N112W. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING ENHANCED ITCZ 
ACTIVITY GENERALLY E OF 100W.  ADDITIONALLY...DEEP MOIST SWLY FLOW 
IS SURGING NEWD INTO SRN MEXICO AND NRN CENTRAL AMERICA.  SW SHEAR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE AREA OF 
DISTURBED WEATHER S OF ACAPULCO AND THE SYSTEM NOW APPEARS LESS 
ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED 
WITHIN 400 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER N...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA AND THE SW UNITED STATES IS GENERATING SOME 
HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE EAST OVER N MEXICO.  FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE S TIP OF BAJA 
NWD OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF N MEXICO.  CONFLUENT FLOW AND 
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED E OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER E PORTIONS OF MEXICO. 

W OF 110W...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N142W WITH 
ASSOCIATED STRONG WLY FLOW COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE AREA N OF 
15N. A SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES A 70-110 KT UPPER JET 
EXTENDING FROM 22N140W TO 25N120W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO 21N140W. A BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS UP TO 200 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH SURFACE 
RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA. FARTHER S...AN UPPER 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N130W AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE TO ITS E IS 
CREATING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS N OF THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED 
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ BUT THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER SUPPORT E FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY.

$$
RHOME