000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 10N98W 7N110W 9N125W 8N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 
4N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
85W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 96W-101W...AND FROM 
5N-12N BETWEEN 104W-110W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N-10N 
BETWEEN 123W-129W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N-5N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

REMNANTS OF LOW NEAR 10N99W...
THE AREA OF LOW PRES THAT WAS SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LOST 
MOST OF ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVERNIGHT AND NO LONGER APPEARS TO 
HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. AN AXIS OF VORTICITY LIES 
ALONG 12N97W 8N100W AND IS MOST LIKELY NOW JUST AN INFECTION IN THE 
ITCZ AXIS. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE 
SYSTEM AND THE RESULTANT SHEAR HAS LED TO THE DISINTEGRATION OF THE 
STRUCTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION LIES ALONG A 
LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 96W-100W. 

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO FROM NEAR TAMPICO TO 
ACAPULCO THEN SW TO 12N110W. THIS TROUGH HAS INCREASED THE MOIST 
SWLY FLOW FEEDING INTO SRN MEXICO AND NRN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND HAS 
ALSO LED TO THE INCREASED SHEAR OVER THE FORMER LOW PRES AREA SW OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES N OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
DUE TO CONFLUENCE OF THE UPPER FLOW...RESTING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST 
SW OF MANZANILLO/PUERTO VALLARTA. THIS AREA IS ALSO BEING AFFECTED 
BY A SMOKE PLUME COMING FROM FIRES OVER WRN MEXICO...BUT 
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED BY A COUPLE OF MILES SINCE YESTERDAY 
ACCORDING TO SEVERAL COASTAL STATIONS.

W OF 110W...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N142W AND 
STRONG WLY FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THIS FEATURE WITH A 110 KT JET 
EXTENDING NE OF 30N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ABOUT 600 NM S OF 
THIS FEATURES RUNNING FROM 21N140W TO 26N120W WITH CORE SPEEDS NEAR 
100 KT. A SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE LIES 500 NM SE OF THE JET AXIS 
WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS TO THE N. A COLD FRONT IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 
21N140W. A BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS UP 
TO 180 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY...THEN IS FOLLOWED BY A FEW 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HRS WITH SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING BACK OVER THE 
AREA. FARTHER S...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N130W AND 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE TO ITS E IS CREATING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. 
WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ 
BUT THERE IS NO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY.

$$
BERG