000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 9N86W 8N95W 9N99W 10N106W 
8N118W 9N127W 7N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NEAR 7N79W 6N86W 6N89W AND 8N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 14N93W 
TO 14N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N104W TO 5N109W. ISOLATED 
STRONG NEAR 10N104W. CLUSTER OF STRONG NEAR 8N107W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE NEAR 9N125W 5N127W AND 4N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WORKING IT'S WAY INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
REGION TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGH AXIS NEG TILTED 
AND MOVING EWD 20 KT. ALSO A STRONG JET DIVING SE ON BACK SIDE 
OF TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP MID LEVEL HEIGHTS N OF 20N W OF 
130W TODAY. 

UPPER RIDGE ALONG 110W EXTENDS N OVER NW MEXICO AND BAJA. A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 30N124W TO 25N115W WAS MOVING NE. A 
SUBTROPIC JET EXTENDED FROM 20N140W TO 27N120W TONIGHT WITH A 
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT 4 DEGREES WIDE ON THE S SIDE OF THE 
JET. THE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE E OF 130W. 

FOR THE REST OF TODAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE NE INTO NRN 
BAJA. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE N OF THE REGION 
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTS NE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO 
SLIDE EWD SLOWLY TO WRN MEXICO WHILE A WEAK PORTION OF THE RIDGE 
EXTENDS BACK TO 12N135W.

SURFACE FEATURES...

ON THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT SHOW WINDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO 25 KT. NW SWELL WILL ALSO 
INCREASE W OF THE FRONT TO 15 FT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY SHIP 
REPORTS.

A WEAK LOW WAS NEAR 9N99W MOVING WNW 5 TO 10 KT. CONVECTION IS 
SCATTERED AND NOT ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THE E PACIFIC TROPICAL 
SEASON KICKS OFF TODAY AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED FOR ANY 
DEVELOPMENT.

$$
RRG