000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 9N95W 8N110W 6N115W 7N130W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
A TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A 
TROUGH W OF 130W AND A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA E OF 130W INTO N MEXICO. A 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET 
EXTENDS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN UP AND OVER THE RIDGE 
ALONG 20N140W 22N125W OVER THE N BAJA PENINSULA AND N MEXICO 
WHERE IT WEAKENS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER 
SCALE PATTERN IS LOCATED NEAR 125W AND IS GENERATING ENHANCED 
HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE EAST EXTENDING OVER N BAJA AND THE SW 
UNITED STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE 
NW PART OF THE AREA ALONG 32N136W 25N140W. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 
25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SWELLS TO 14 FT.  BROKEN LOW TO MID 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE ALONG AND 
WITHIN 200 NM NW OF FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD BUT LARGE SWELLS WILL 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. FURTHER E...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES INCREASING 
CONFLUENT S OF 25N E OF 120W COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WHICH UNDERCUTS THE E PACIFIC RIDGE FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 
17N96W SW INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 9N115W.  MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 20N 
BETWEEN 120W AND THE W COAST OF MEXICO.   

S OF 15N...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM CENTRAL 
MEXICO NEAR 17N96W PENETRATES DEEP INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
WATERS AS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS REACHING 9N115W.  CONFLUENT 
FLOW POLEWARD OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS GENERATING MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W-125W. E OF 105W...THE FLOW 
ALOFT BECOMES INCREASING DIFFLUENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGING 
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS.  ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE 
ACTIVE FROM 92W-112W ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A 1007 MB LOW 
LOCATED NEAR 9N99W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION 
NEAR THE LOW CENTER REMAINS HIGHLY ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED.  
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW MOVES 
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 5 KT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
FINALLY...EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMOKE PLUME 
ORIGINATING FROM NUMEROUS FIRES ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO 
DRIFTING WWD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS GENERALLY FROM 15N-20N 
BETWEEN 100W-110W.  VSBY MAY BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED BELOW 5 NM 
WITHIN THIS AREA. 

$$
RHOME