000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142130 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAY 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 9N95W 8N110W 6N115W 7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 100W-117W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N... A TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A TROUGH W OF 130W AND A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF 130W INTO N MEXICO. A 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN UP AND OVER THE RIDGE ALONG 20N140W 22N125W OVER THE N BAJA PENINSULA AND N MEXICO WHERE IT WEAKENS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS LOCATED NEAR 125W AND IS GENERATING ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE EAST REACHING N BAJA AND THE SW UNITED STATES COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA ALONG 32N138W 28N140W. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SWELLS BUILDING TO 13 FT LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BROKEN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE ALONG AND WITHIN 200 NM NW OF FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. FURTHER E...THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASING CONFLUENT S OF 25N E OF 120W COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH UNDERCUTS THE E PACIFIC RIDGE FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 17N96W INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 20N BETWEEN 120W AND THE W COAST OF MEXICO. S OF 15N... AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 17N96W PENETRATES DEEP INTO THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS AS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS REACHING 10N110W. CONFLUENT FLOW POLEWARD OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS GENERATING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 102W-125W. AS A RESULT...ITCZ CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED S OF 10N IN THIS REGION. E OF 105W...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASING DIVERGENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE FROM 90W-105W ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A 1007 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 9N98W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. AS SUCH...IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FINALLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMOKE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NUMEROUS FIRES ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO DRIFTING WWD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS GENERALLY FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 100W-110W. VSBY MAY BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED BELOW 5 NM WITHIN THIS AREA. $$ RHOME