000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 9N98W 6N115W 11N133W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 
90W-96W...AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 96W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

LOW NEAR 9N99W...
LARGE CONVECTIVE BLOW-UP BEGAN AROUND 00Z LAST NIGHT AND WAS 
FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND THE S/SE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER OF 
CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY CREATED A NEARLY CIRCULAR 180 NM WIDE 
EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD BUT MORE RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS 
BROKEN UP INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS ALIGNED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AND 
S OF THE CENTER. A 1252Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SINCE IT HAS NOT 
YET DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ...BUT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY 
MORE CIRCULAR AND COMPACT. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT DIED OFF 
LIKE IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. SEE ITCZ FOR RELATED CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
ACROSS MEXICO TO 12N110W WITH AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 
12N-20N W OF THE COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING 
ADVECTED NEWD FROM THE LOW NEAR 9N98W TOWARDS SE MEXICO AND NRN 
CENTRAL AMERICA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS 
FORMED WITHIN THIS MOISTURE FIELD SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
FROM 13N-15.5N BETWEEN 94W-100W. THE UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY W/NWLY 
EMANATING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT 
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED TO THE E.

W OF 110W...
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA BUT THE SWLY 
PART OF THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS INTO THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 
120W. DRY AIR/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF 
THE TROUGH INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 130W...WHILE ABUNDANT 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SHUTTLING NE OF 120W TOWARDS THE CA/BAJA CA 
COAST. THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS 
ALIGNED ALONG 115W...AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR MAZATLAN 
MEXICO. IN THE TROPICS...ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EQ140W 
TO 10N130W THEN EWD TO 10N110W. DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS 
IS ALIGNED NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS AND IS AIDING IN CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 108W-122W.

$$
BERG