000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W 8N85W 10N100W 6N119W 6N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N84W AND 13N99W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N108W TO 7N114W 
TO 8N120W.  

NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF 7N98W 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 9N98W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD TONIGHT. AXIS ALONG 115W AS 
DEFINED BY THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BROAD SWATH OF HIGH 
CLOUDS CONTINUES TRACKING NE FROM THE MID PACIFIC TROPIC 
REGIONS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NNE BETWEEN 120W AND 130W 
WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION NEAR 26N129W ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST.  UPPER FLOW DIVES SE OVER 
EXTREME NE MEXICO TONIGHT.

FOR DAY 1 UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLOW SHIFT EWD TO ALONG 
110W. VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SWD BETWEEN 140W AND 
150W. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SHORTWAVES NEWD OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE EWD. ONE SHORTWAVE 
WILL MOVE TO 30N125W. 

SURFACE FEATURES...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS S ALONG 127W THEN SE TO 
12N110W. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT SHOW NE TRADES ARE LESS THAN 20 KT. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT ARE NWLY 10 TO 15 KT 
ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT.

A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER ALONG THE ITCZ WAS LOCATED NEAR 9N99W AT 
1008 MB MOVING SLOWLY WWD. THERES BEEN A INCREASE IN CONVECTION 
DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS SE OF THE CENTER. THE AREA DOES NOT 
SHOW ANY TELLTALE CURVATURE OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM.

FOR DAY 1 LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE EXTREME NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 
KT FROM THE S AND SW. THE WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 127W AND 
THE WEAK LOW WILL DRIFT W TO NEAR 10N100W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

$$
RRG