000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 11N90W 13N95W 6N115W 9N130W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
A TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A 
TROUGH W OF 130W AND A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA E OF 130W INTO N MEXICO. A 60-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDS 
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN UP AND OVER THE RIDGE ALONG  
15N140W 20N130W 25N125W THE OVER THE N BAJA PENINSULA AND N 
MEXICO. THE JET IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDINESS.  SE OF THE JET...THE 
FLOW BECOMES INCREASING CONFLUENT FLOW COURTESY OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W TO 
15N110W WHERE IT CONTINUES SW AS A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS.  
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
S OF 25N BETWEEN 125W AND THE W COAST OF MEXICO.   AT THE 
SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS N/S ALONG 140W BUT IS VOID OF 
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION.  THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN A 
WEAKER SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC RIDGE WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 
32N130W TO 20N110W.  TRADE WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA WILL MOVE 
INTO THE NW PART OF REGION LATE SUN AND MON BRINGING INCREASING 
W TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT AND NW SWELLS TO 13 FT. 

S OF 15N...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER 
THE W PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS GENERATING MODERATE WLY 
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM 5N TO 15N W OF 120W.  
FURTHER E...A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W 
INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 15N110W WHERE IT DEGENERATES 
INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO 10N115W.  CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS GENERATING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
N OF 10N BETWEEN 105W-125W.  AS A RESULT...ITCZ CONVECTION IS 
SUPPRESSED S OF 10N IN THIS REGION. E OF 105W...THE FLOW BECOMES 
INCREASING DIVERGENT ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGING IN THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS QUITE ACTIVE FROM 
85W-100W.  A DISORGANIZED LOW PRES...1008 MB...IS LOCATED WITHIN 
THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR 9N97W MOVING SLOWLY 
WNW 5-10 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION 
N OF THE LOW HAS BEEN DISSIPATING...DUE TO WLY SHEAR...WHILE NEW 
CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER THE SE SEMICIRLCE.  WHILE IMMEDIATE 
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WNW AT 
5-10 MPH.  FINALLY...EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A 
SMOKE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NUMEROUS FIRES ALONG THE W COAST OF 
MEXICO DRIFTING WWD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS GENERALLY FROM 
16N-21N E OF 110W.  VSBY MAY BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED BELOW 5 NM 
AS INDICATED IN OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. 

$$
RHOME