000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 11N90W 13N95W 6N115W 9N130W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 86W 
AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W 
AND 101W AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W 
AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N...
A TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A 
TROUGH W OF 135W AND A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA E OF 135W INCLUDING MEXICO. A 60-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET 
EXTENDS UP AND OVER THE RIDGE FROM 13N140W TO 25N120W AND IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CIRRUS CLOUDS. S 
OF THE JET...A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS S 
OF 25N BETWEEN THE COAST OF MEXICO AND 125W.  THE SUBSIDENCE IS 
BEING GENERATED BY CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH/CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WHICH 
UNDERCUTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH 
EXISTS ALONG 140W BUT IS VOID OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION.  
THE TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC RIDGE 
WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO 15N105W.  

S OF 15N...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS 
GENERATING MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
FROM 5N TO 15N W OF 125W.  FURTHER E...A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 
15N105W WHERE IT DEGENERATES INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO 
11N120W.  CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS 
IS GENERATING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N BETWEEN 105W-120W. E 
OF 105W...THE FLOW BECOMES INCREASING DIVERGENT ALOFT IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. AS A 
RESULT...ITCZ CONVECTION IS QUITE ACTIVE FROM 85W-100W.  A 
DISORGANIZED LOW PRES...1008 MB...IS LOCATED WITHIN THIS AREA OF 
CONVECTION NEAR 9N97W MOVING SLOWLY WNW 5-10 KT. LATEST VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION 
IS DISPLACED S OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  AS SUCH... 
IMMEDIATELY DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. STILL...WITH UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SYSTEM...LONGER TERM 
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE.  FINALLY...A SMOKE PLUME 
ORIGINATING FROM NUMEROUS FIRES ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO HAS 
DRIFTED WWD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS AND GENERALLY LIES FROM 
16N-21N E OF 110W. LOWERED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE SMOKE AND 
HAZE WERE EARLIER REPORTED IN ACAPULCO (7 MILES)...IXTAPA/ 
ZIHUATANEJO (5 MILES)...MANZANILLO (4 MILES)...AND PUERTO 
VALLARTA (6 MILES).

$$
RHOME