000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 11N90W 9N97W 8N110W 10N126W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 6N83W 
9N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 100W-106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
110W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES W OF THE AREA 
FROM ALASKA TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH BROAD SWLY FLOW IN 
THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 120W. WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE/CIRRUS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND EXTENDS NW OF A 
LINE FROM 12N130W TO THE CNTRL BAJA PENINSULA. AN EQUALLY AS 
LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM ALONG 113W EXTENDING N 
ACROSS NW MEXICO AND ARIZONA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 12N-26N BETWEEN THE COAST OF 
MEXICO AND 125W. FARTHER S IN THE DEEP TROPICS...WLY UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW CROSS 140W THEN TURNS SE/SWD E OF 135W. NLY FLOW EMANATES 
FROM NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS MOVING SWD TO THE EQUATOR WITH UPPER 
DIVERGENCE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 110W-128W.

E OF 110W...
MAIN FEATURE IS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTERED 
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 9N97W MOVING SLOWLY W 5-10 KT. THE 
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ILL-DEFINED AND STILL ELONGATED AT THE 
MOMENT...AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE MAINLY E OF THE 
CENTER FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 91W-95W ALTHOUGH NEW TSTM CELLS ARE 
NOW DEVELOPING UP TO 180 NM NW OF THE PRESUMED CENTER. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS FAVORABLE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP 
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS BEFORE MID-LATITUDE FLOW BEGINS TO AFFECT 
IT.

COAST OF MEXICO...
A SMOKE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NUMEROUS FIRES ALONG THE W COAST 
OF MEXICO HAS DRIFTED WWD OVER THE PACIFIC...GENERALLY FROM 
16N-21N E OF 110W. LOWERED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE SMOKE AND 
HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED IN ACAPULCO (7 MILES)...IXTAPA/ 
ZIHUATANEJO (5 MILES)...MANZANILLO (4 MILES)...AND PUERTO 
VALLARTA (6 MILES).

$$
BERG