000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

ITCZ...AXIS ALONG 7N78W 10N88W 9N105W 9N109W 8N118W 9N128W 
7N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE OR STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 7N78W 8N82W 
AND 7N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N105W 
TO 8N117W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG NEAR 10N126W 10N130W AND 
7N139W.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OF 8N94W ASSOCIATED 
WITH A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 9N96W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER RIDGE HOLDING FIRM ALONG 115W ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A BROAD STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE MID PACIFIC TROPIC REGION NE BETWEEN 
130W AND 140W OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE BAND OF MOISTURE 
TURNS E AND SE OVER NRN BAJA AND NW MEXICO. 

AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED JUST W OF THE REGION ALONG 145W AND 25N 
MOVING NE 25 KT.

LITTLE CHANGE DAY 1 WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE 
REGION. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A 
STRONG SWLY FLOW OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. 

SURFACE FEATURES...

THE MID PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO 15N110W. SSMI AND 
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOW MOST NE TRADES W OF THE REGION TONIGHT. 
THERE IS AN AREA BETWEEN 10N AND 15N FROM 110W TO 120W WITH NE 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY NWLY 10 
TO 15 KT N OF 24N AND 15 TO 20 KT S OF 24N.

A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1007 MB WAS NEAR 9N96W MOVING SLOWLY WWD. 
QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. THERE 
APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 24 HRS 
MAINLY E OF THE CENTER. THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM 
HAS BECOME BETTER DURING THE NIGHT. 

$$
RRG